India’s Weakened Government May Struggle For Reform

Press Information Bureau Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (D.M.K.) leader M. Karunanidhi, left, with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, right, in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, in this Jan. 3, 2011 photo.

India’s government faced accusations Wednesday that it will be incapable of bringing about much-needed reforms after the withdrawal of its biggest ally Tuesday night, a southern political party that protested the government’s stance on Sri Lanka’s alleged war crimes.

Critics called into question the government’s future ability to pass reforms with fewer supporters in Parliament, calling it a “lame duck,” ahead of national elections scheduled for 2014.

Analysts said that the lower numbers would make reforms much harder to pass.

“Political uncertainty could also once again bring talk of early elections, threats of even slower growth and possible ratings actions,” Citigroup said in a research report.

The lame duck label, first put forward by the main opposition party, was firmly rejected by senior leaders of the Indian National Congress Party, which heads the governing alliance. “Neither is the government lame, nor is it a duck,” pointedly clarified Kamal Nath, the parliamentary affairs minister, at a news conference Wednesday morning. “We’re absolutely stable.”

The withdrawal of 18 Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, or D.M.K., legislators this week has left the governing alliance with 235 seats in the lower house of Parliament, out of a total 540 seats. With the help of outside allies, it gets 46 more seats, which brings it to 281, just a sliver above the 271 it needs for a simple majority. But there is no guarantee those outside allies will support the coalition on every position.

The Congress leaders, saying they would continue to push for legislation and woo investors, burnished their credentials by pointing to two important bills that were passed on the same day as D.M.K. sparked an upheaval. On Tuesday, an “anti-rape” bill that sought to better protect women from sex crimes cleared the lower house of Parliament, while a gargantuan food security bill to subsidize food for the country’s poor got the cabinet’s nod.

The Congress Party also reiterated the alliance’s ability to run a coalition government, which it has for nine years, and swiftly denounced accusations by the D.M.K. that the government was allowing a United States-backed resolution on Sri Lanka to be watered down.

That resolution, which is expected to be presented to the United Nations Human Rights Council on Thursday, calls on Sri Lanka to make good on its promises to investigate allegations of human rights violations during the country’s 26-year civil war, the last months of which saw tens of thousands of Tamil civilians killed.

The D.M.K. did not relent Wednesday on its demands, which include adopting a resolution in Parliament that explicitly describes Sri Lanka’s treatment of its Tamils as “genocide” and pushing this position with amendments to a United Nations resolution. It also wants an independent international body to look into what it describes as war crimes by the Sri Lankan government.

The United Progressive Alliance, or U.P.A, an unwieldy coalition supported by political parties with varied ideologies and mandates, struggled Wednesday to reach a consensus on a resolution on Sri Lanka in Parliament, where it also faces a belligerent opposition.

Political analysts said that the Congress Party, unlikely to reach a consensus on the resolution, may be inclined to accept the loss of D.M.K.’s 18 legislators and trudge to national elections scheduled in May next year without them.

However, the central government said that it has formulated amendments to the draft resolution to be presented to the United Nations human rights panel.

“India’s position has always been - and remains - that the U.N.H.R.C. should adopt a strong resolution that would send a resolute message to Sri Lanka and goad Sri Lanka to accept an independent and credible investigation,” the government noted in a statement.

Some political analysts said that Muthuvel Karunanidhi, D.M.K.’s party chief, decided to withdraw from the government with a shrewd eye on the national elections, by reiterating his support for a cause also dear to his competitor in Tamil Nadu, the state’s chief minister, Jayalalithaa Jayaram.

The D.M.K., which is in the opposition in the state of Tamil Nadu, wants to agitate on an emotional pressure point â€" the welfare of Sri Lankan Tamils â€" to ensure they scoop up some of Tamil Nadu’s 39 lower house seats in Parliament next year, journalist T.S. Sudhir wrote in Tehelka. Emboldened by student protests in his state and striving “to emerge as the champion of the Tamil cause”, Mr. Karunanidhi hopes his moves will have a political payoff, Mr. Sudhir writes.

Whether they actually do in Tamil Nadu, where local issues still hold sway, is yet to be seen, he noted.

Others point out that Tamil Nadu’s push for a strong resolution is unlikely to bring about any change in Sri Lanka.

“Indeed, all this only makes it easier for the Sri Lankan government to dismiss any Indian effort to make it do the right thing as inspired by the ‘Tamil Nadu factor,’ ” and therefore, not take it seriously,” writes journalist and author Nirupama Subramanian in an op-ed in the Hindu newspaper. “Even Sri Lankan Tamils are not convinced that Dravidian political parties take up their cause for anything other than their own political gains.”