Congress Poised to Wrestle Himachal Pradesh From B.J.P.

Kuni Takahashi for The New York TimesA farm in the hilly state of Himachal Pradesh.

Himachal Pradesh, a small, hilly state in northern India, seems poised to oust its Bharatiya Janata Party government, with its main challenger, the Congress party, leading in more than half of the state's 68 constituencies.

At 11 a.m., Congress was leading in 36 constituencies, while the incumbent B.J.P. was ahead in 25. (Check the most recent results on the Election Commission website.) Smaller parties and independent candidates had a lead in four seats, and results were pending in other constituencies.

The mood at the st ate's Congress office was already celebratory.

“Based on the trend so far, I can say that the Congress will win conclusively,” Congress leader Virbhadra Singh, who led the party's campaign and has been chief minister of the state for five terms, said in a televised interview. “Himachal Pradesh is a Congress state and we were told to take it back.”

From independence until the early nineties, Congress governed Himachal Pradesh almost exclusively. Since then, the two-party race between Congress and the B.J.P. has been neck-and-neck, with Congress winning one election and the B.J.P. the next.  Anti-incumbent sentiment has been a crucial factor in state elections throughout the country, and it appears to have played a particularly significant role in Himachal Pradesh.

The victory, if it indeed comes, is likely to provide some solace to Congress, whose credibility has suffered after a series of corruption scandals involving s enior politicians. India's slowing growth rate has also proved problematic for the party as the country prepares for national polls in 2014.

State elections are seen a barometer of the mood of the nation. On Thursday,   Congress faces the prospect of a crushing defeat at the hands of the divisive B.J.P.  leader Narendra Modi, who is believed to have prime ministerial aspirations.

Himachal Pradesh went to the polls on Nov. 4, with an estimated 4.5 million casting their ballots, a turnout of nearly 75 percent. Major election issues ranged from corruption and inflation to local development. The election was a showdown between two stalwarts of state politics, the incumbent chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, 68, who is on his second term, and Mr. Singh, 78, of  Congress.

Counting of the results began at 8 a.m. on Thursday and was expected to conclude by early afternoon.