Does Nitish Kumar Need the B.J.P.?

Adnan Abidi/Reuters Nitish Kumar, chief minister of Bihar, during an interview in Patna, Bihar, on Jan. 9, 2012.

NEW DELHI â€" Earlier this week, Bihar’s chief minister, Nitish Kumar, expressed reservations about the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi’s suitability for prime minister, brooking the strongest opposition yet Mr. Modi has faced from an ally.

While Mr. Kumar never mentioned Mr. Modi by name, his intentions were clear: “Only one who can carry with him all the diverse sections of people can become the leader of the nation,” said Mr. Kumar at a recent party function in Delhi.

Mr. Kumar rules a coalition government in Bihar, and his Janata Dal (United), or J.D.U., party gained power thanks to long historical ties with Mr. Modi’s party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P. But Mr. Kumar now appears ready to sever them.

“The coalition came into existence to oppose Lalu Yadav and his nongovernance,” said Shivanand Tiwari, the Janata Dal (United) spokesman, in an interview, referring to a previous Bihar chief minister. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal Party, ruled the state for 15 years and was thrown out by the coalition in 2005.

“Now the B.J.P. is projecting Narendra Modi as their prime minister-in-waiting, and he is not acceptable to us in any circumstances,” Mr. Tiwari said.

Mr. Kumar opposes Mr. Modi’s bid for the prime minister’s post because of Mr. Modi’s governance of the state during the riots in Gujarat, in which more than 1,000 people died, most of them Muslims. The riots were triggered by the killing of 59 Hindu pilgrims in a train fire in a Muslim-dominated area in 2002.

Muslims make up 17 percent of the electorate in Bihar, and they voted overwhelmingly for Janata Dal (United) in the last state election in 2010. Together, the Janata Dal (United) and B.J.P. secured 39 percent of votes in the last assembly election.

Dumping a 17-year alliance with the B.J.P. now could also be shrewd politics, analysts said, in the run-up to Bihar state elections in 2015.

In the Bihar state legislature, Janata Dal (United) has 117 members and the B.J.P. 91. If the coalition collapses, analysts said, Mr. Kumar could probably manage majority support to stay in power with the support of smaller parties, and may even pick up additional voters.

“Nitish Kumar feels now that if the coalition with B.J.P. breaks down, he may increase his support base among Muslims,” said Shaibal Gupta, chairman of the Asian Development Research Institute, a social science research institute based in Patna, capital of Bihar.

At his party’s meeting earlier this week, Mr. Kumar made an indirect jab at Mr. Modi’s refusal in 2011 to wear a skull cap offered by a visiting Muslim cleric, which Mr. Modi’s critics saw as an insult to Islam.

“Kabhi tilak bhi lagana parta hai kabhi topi bhi pahnni padati hai (At times we need to have a mark on our forehead, and at times we need to wear skull cap),” Mr. Kumar said, referring to the Hindu practice of putting vermilion on the forehead.

Sushil Kumar Modi, deputy chief minister of Bihar and senior B.J.P. official, called Mr. Kumar’s questioning of Mr. Modi an “indirect attack” that was “unfortunate and should not have happened.”