Congress Party Craters in Gujarat

Ajit Solanki/Associated PressCongress Party president Sonia Gandhi waiving to the crowds during a rally in Godsamba near Mandvi, Gujarat, on Friday.

KESHOD, India
The prospects of the Indian National Congress party in the battleground state of Gujarat are dwindling by the day, analysts and potential voters say, a situation that could ultimately advance Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi's bid to become prime minister.

Sonia Gandhi, the president of the Congress party, drew smaller-than-expected crowds in Gujarat this weekend, just days ahead of state elections, and important party memb ers and aides have defected in recent weeks. Some supporters say they have lost hope.

“I've been a Congress supporter since I was in college,” said Meena Raval, 44, a homemaker from Rajkot who holds a master's degree in English literature. “But there is a vast difference between Congress leaders of the 1980s and 1990s and those of today,” she said. “It's hard to win an election, let alone come to power, without a strong, powerful leader.”

Unlike in Rajkot in early October, when Mrs. Gandhi's rally attracted nearly 150,000 people, there were only about 15,000 attendees at a rally in Mandvi and 10,000 at Keshod this weekend. Many seemed to be local tribal women, who were keener to see how Mrs. Gandhi, probably India's best-known politician, looked than to listen to what she had to say.

“I didn't understand what she was saying,” said Ramaben Prajapati, 34, a vegetable seller from a village near Keshod. “But I thou ght she was very honest. I was impressed by her personality and body language.”

Gujarat voters go to the polls on Dec. 18 and 17th in a two-part election, when they will decide whether to re-elect Mr. Modi for a third term. How he fares in this election could help determine whether he becomes the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party's candidate for prime minister in India's next national elections.

Allegations that Mr. Modi encouraged, or did not do enough to stop, the 2002 riots in Gujarat which left hundreds dead, mostly Muslims, have dogged his political career and made him one of India's most polarizing politicians. Still, the state's ability to attract foreign investment and build infrastructure since he took power have gained accolades, and new supporters.

Mr. Modi's no-expenses-spared state election campaign includes rallies across the state led by a three-dimensional avatar that speaks in numerous locations at once.

The political fight has become increasingly nasty in recent weeks, with Congress party members accusing Mr. Modi of hypocrisy and lying, and he, in turn, calling Congress and the Gandhi family a corrupt organization with no other political agenda but to criticize Mr. Modi.

Meanwhile, key members of the party in Gujarat are abandoning it. Members of the state's legislative assembly and hundreds of party officials have switched from the Congress to the opposition in recent weeks. Defectors include lawmakers Kuvarji Halpati, Lalsinh Vadodia, Brijrajsinh Jadeja, Bhavsinh Rathod and party officials Mahendrasinh Rana, Ashok Dangar, Girish Parmar, Asifa Khan Pathan and Poonam Madam.

The most high-profile departure has been former deputy chief minister Narhari Amin, from Ahmedabad, who was at the forefront of the party's election campaign until Nov. 30. On Dec. 6, he joined the B.J.P. , along with many of his aides. Mr. Amin's defection came after the party denied him a spot on the ballot from the state capital of Gandhinagar. “As a sincere and senior leader I felt insulted because the Congress gave tickets to unknown faces,” Mr. Amin said in an interview. “Is this the price of loyalty? There was no way I could have stayed in Congress after being so treated.”

Mrs. Gandhi and one of close aides, Ahmed Patel, rushed several top Congress leaders from New Delhi to Gujarat to persuade Mr. Amin to change his mind, but he refused. Nearly 80 key Congress workers from Ahmedabad and another 100 from across Gujarat have joined the B.J.P. along with him, Mr. Amin said. “In all, nearly 20,000 people from Congress across Gujarat have joined the B.J.P. in the last few weeks,” he said, including mayors and chiefs of district and village councils.

“Congress just can't stop the B.J.P. juggernaut,” Mr. Amin said. “We'll ensure that Modi makes a hat-trick of a win in Gujarat.”  

The Congress general secretary for Gujarat, Kashmira Nathwani, conceded in an interview that there have been “some cases” of defection and a “feeling of disappointment in some quarters.” Still, she said, “Congress is as strong as ever in Gujarat and it's all thanks to its millions of supporters and strong leadership at the state as well as national level.”

Participants at last weekend's rallies, though, said Mrs. Gandhi lacked the vigor and zeal she had displayed in Rajkot earlier this year.

“I was hoping she would forcefully answer some of the questions Narendra Modi had asked her at one of his public rallies,” said Manish Chauhan 22, an engineering student and Congress supporter from Junagadh, who had come to Keshod to hear her. “But she was a big disappointment. She appeared to be quite subdued and her attitude was defeatist.”

Some voters say that Congress has given them few reasons to vote for the party, instead telling them why they should vote against Mr. Modi.

“There are many issues the Congress leaders can take up, but all the time they are seen busy bashing Modi and hardly talking about any other serious matter,” said Popat Bharwad, 28, a roadside tea seller from Rajkot, who described himself as passionately interested in Indian politics and cricket. “This gives Modi more publicity and gradually distances people from Congress.”

Many Congress supporters in Gujarat now say they can't seen their party winning this state election, or any others in the near future.

“I've always been a Congress loyalist, but we have to face the reality â€" we have little hope to regain power in Gujarat,” said one sociology professor from Rajkot, who asked not to be identified because he did not want to offend associates from the Congress party. “The problem is Congress just doesn't have a leader of Modi's charisma and dynamism.”

Bharatiya Janata Party leaders, not surprisingly, agreed. “There is so much defection in Congress that it will be wiped out from Gujarat in coming years,” predicted Naresh Kanodiya, a Gujarati actor and a former member of the state legislative assembly for the B.J.P.