The World on What Obama\'s Second Term Will Mean

The World on Obama

Cristóbal Schmal

The Editors of the International Herald Tribune invited analysts from around the world to share their reactions to the re-election of President Obama.

Dmitri Trenin - Russia and the Reset

The Kremlin is pleased with the outcome of the U.S. presidential vote. Barack Obama's re-election means predictability in U.S.-Russian relations. There will be no ritual or real repudiation of the previous four years, no painful reassessment of past policies, and no abrupt change in the cast of characters. There might even be more flexibility, as Obama promised Dimitri Medvedev, on the thornier issues of the relationship, such as missile defense.

Yet, the relationship is in need of some heavy lifting. Unless the reset is followed by a rethink, both the United States and Russia will be getting less and less from each other.

A rethink would mean, above all, upgrading the relationship from largely tactical to strategic. In the last four years, Obama's Russia policy was primarily geared to Afghanistan and Iran. Cooperation with Moscow has allowed the U.S. to ferry troops and matériel to and from Afghanistan across Russia: a big help, in view of conditions in Pakistan. It has also permitted a modicum of unity among the major powers with regard to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Besides, Washington and Moscow succeeded in reaching another agreement on cutting their nuclear forces and in having Russia finally join the World Trade Organization.

This is certainly good, but not good enough. Differences over Syria and a lack of agreement on missile defense, and reaction in America to Russia's domestic developments and the Kremlin's counter-reaction, threaten to undermine the relationship.

As people used to say during George W. Bush's first term, unless the U.S.-Russia relationship goes up, it will go down. They were right then, and this lesson must be learned. Making the relationship strategic would mean protecting it from being overwhelmed by disagreements abroad and special interests at home.

Does Russia deserve a strategic status in U.S. foreign policy? Consider the following. An agreement on cooperative missile defenses in Europe would make sure that the country with a nuclear arsenal almost as big as America's would no longer have to be counted as a potential military adversary. Expanding Washington's vision for the Asia-Pacific to include the country which has a 2,700-mile long border with China and the longest shoreline in the Pacific would make the “pivot” more realistic. Making sure that the Arctic emerges as an area of cooperation par excellence would require dealing with Russia, the biggest of the five littoral states.

Dealing with Russia will not be easy. It is not America's equal, but fiercely independent; it is not an ally, but not a willing adversary either. Russia, however, is critical for the 21 century's global balance - and that should not escape Obama's attention.

Dmitri Trenin is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Ed Husain - The Arab View

“I wish George W. Bush was still in power,” a leading Egyptian liberal politician said to me in Cairo earlier this year. “At least we knew what we would get with Bush.” Not just in Egypt, but in Syria, Israel, Bahrain, Iran and even Saudi Arabia there is a perception that President Obama and the United States cannot be relied upon. This weakens America's allies, and strengthens its enemies. President Obama can change this perception in his second term by taking his domestic mantra of ‘'I mean what I say, and I say what I mean'' to the world's most volatile region.

He has been wise not to intervene militarily in Syria. In coming months, Syrian rebels, Turkey and Gulf countries will try to lure the U.S. into the jihadist battlefields by escalating violence and chaos. Will the U.S. maintain its sobriety?

Obama's victory will be seen as an amber light in Tehran. To further isolate Iran, and be prepared for consequences of U.S. military options, Obama can't ignore the Palestinians. His second term can see him belatedly deserve the Nobel Prize by bringing Israelis and Arabs to a settlement. He has made new friends in the Middle East, not least the region's most powerful political force: the Muslim Brotherhood. They will expect leadership and reliability.

Ed Husain is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Shlomo Avineri - From Israel

While Obama's Mideast policies during his first term were occasionally misguided and unfocused, he certainly is better equipped to face these regional challenges than Mitt Romney.