A Closer Look at the American \'Pivot\'

HONG KONG - The United States still has tens of thousands of troops based in Europe, a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is two years away, Iran's nuclear program appears to be a crisis-in-waiting and the Middle East remains highly combustible. But as a senior American diplomat says, “the history of the 21st century is going to be written in the Asia-Pacific region,” which presents the opportunity for “an absolutely unique American role.”

The diplomat, Kurt M. Campbell, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, is interviewed in a deft new documentary, “The Pivot,” which explains and explores the enhanced U.S. emphasis on Asia - militarily, diplomatically and economically.

The film, available here, is the latest in an excellent series of documentaries by the former CNN journalist Mike Chinoy, a senior fellow at the U.S.-China Institute at the University of Southern California.

The documentary features interviews with a ra nge of American diplomats - current and former - and scholars with long experience in Asia. Some offer their thoughts on what the upcoming election might mean for U.S. foreign policy in the region.

The Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, has a deep foreign policy bench, according to Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state under President George W. Bush, and those advisers would likely ensure that “Asia policy would be relatively untouched,” Mr. Armitage said.

Some analysts fear that Mr. Romney's oft-stated promise to call out China for manipulating its currency will not bode well for bilateral relations. Such a move would mean “we're going to have a few years of very tough ties,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China scholar and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-author of “Bending History: Barack Obama's Foreign Policy.”

A former Chinese diplomat in Washington, Jia Xiudong, said in the film that he and other Chinese officials have been privately told to ignore the heated, anti-China rhetoric of this and previous campaigns. But if Mr. Romney is elected and carries through on his promise on the currency charge, it would be “the equivalent of declaring war, a trade war,” Mr. Jia said.

“Don't treat China as an enemy,” Mr. Jia advised. “Otherwise you end up with an enemy in China.”

“The fundamental reality is we're the two largest economies in the world for decades to come,” said Mr. Lieberthal. “We had better figure out how to make this work between the two of us.”

The administration, which has proclaimed Mr. Obama to be “our first Pacific president,” originally employed the word “pivot” to describe its new focus on the region. But U.S. diplomats now avoid the term.

“To some ears it has a bit of a military ring to it,” said Jeffrey Bader, a former senior director on the National Security Council in the Obama administration who is a senior fellow at Brookings.

So “pivot” is out. “Rebalancing” is in.

Whatever it's called, the new approach essentially involves deploying 60 percent of U.S. naval forces in the Pacific, a change from the previous 50-50 split between the Atlantic and Pacific commands. Six aircraft carriers will be part of the Pacific fleet.

Mr. Jia, the former diplomat, said many in China are convinced that the pivot is intended “to contain China.” And Mr. Chinoy, a veteran China hand, says that interpretation has become “a widely accepted narrative” on the mainland.

Mr. Campbell, however, rejects the containment notion, calling it “simplistic and wrong.”

Mr. Armitage rejects that view: “When the administration says it's not about China, it's all about China. China knows this.”

The pivot also involves bolstering alliances and friendships with an array of Asian nations, including India, and especially those that have been at odds with China in recent months - Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea.

Multilateral institutions also have received more of Washington's attention, like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the East Asia Summit. The next East Asia meeting is scheduled to be held next month in Phnom Penh, and Mr. Obama is expected to attend.